Saturday notes: Magic number down to one

Win one of the next two games, and the Pirates guarantee themselves a third consecutive wild-card game at PNC Park.

Their 97-63 record is impressive regardless of where the wild-card game takes place and a continuation of the improvement in years three through five under Clint Hurdle and years six through eight under Neal Huntington. But right now, their focus is on three games against a last-place team that has lost 13 games in a row.

Their magic number is one. The Brewers can help out by beating the Cubs, but the Pirates control their fate against two rookie pitchers, the 109th and 110th starts made by a rookie for the Reds this season. 

First on the docket is Brandon Finnegan, a lefty who joined the Reds in the Johnny Cueto trade. In spring 2014, he was pitching for TCU. In October he was playing in the World Series. Finnegan pitched in relief all season until Sept. 18, when he joined the Reds’ rotation. He has pitched five innings in each of his three starts. After three scoreless innings in his most recent start against the Nationals, Finnegan allowed four hits and a walk in the fourth, and a home run in the fifth.

Barring a change of mind, this will be A.J. Burnett’s final regular-season start, and the final start of his career if the Pirates don’t advance to the NLDS. He has started 429 games in his 17-year career, with a 164-156 record. His 2,503 strikeouts are three behind Hall of Famer Christy Mathewson for 31st on the all-time list. Burnett’s final season has been one of his best, as he earned a trip to the All-Star game and used his changeup more frequently to complement his low-90s sinker.

Here’s an interesting read from Jeff Sullivan correlating what dominant regular-season pitchers have done in the playoffs. The odds are not in the Pirates’ favor against Jake Arrieta, but home-field advantage would eat into the advantage Arrieta provides the Cubs.