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How to get to Jake Arrieta

By Bill Brink 8 years ago

Five times this season, Jake Arrieta allowed four or more runs in a start. He made 33 starts, so that is one of many stats that illustrates how good he was. But let’s look at the outings during which he “struggled’ and see if there are any common threads.

May 2, vs. Brewers, Wrigley Field

Arrieta’s line: 5 IP 7 H 4 R 4 ER 1 BB 6 K

The Brewers got to Arrieta early after Ryan Braun’s two-run homer in the first inning. They scored two more runs in the second, on singles from Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura. Perhaps he’s vulnerable out of the stretch? Well, hitters are batting .194 against him with men on base, only slightly higher than his season .185 mark. 

Gomez stole second and third before scoring. Arrieta’s caught-stealing percentage on the mound is 18 percent, fifth-worst in the NL. His 27 steals allowed is fourth-worst in the league, behind teammate Jon Lester and A.J. Burnett. Perhaps he can be run on -- but you have to get on base first.

May 7, at Cardinals, Busch Stadium

Arrieta’s line: 51/3 IP 9 H 5 R 4 ER 1 BB 7K

The Cardinals got two runs in the second, again getting the leadoff batter on, and took advantage of an error and wild pitch. In the fourth, Arrieta intentionally walked Peter Bourjos to bring pitcher John Lackey to the plate with two outs. Here he was somewhat unlucky: Lackey hit a well-placed ground ball for a double, and Bourjos is fast enough to score from first. Jason Heyward stole second -- the running game again -- to open first base for Bourjos.

After two singles in the sixth, Arrieta was lifted. Arrieta’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .429 May 2, .529 May 7. Arrieta also used his cutter a season-low 19.6 percent of the time, which could explain the balls in play.

May 23, at Diamondbacks, Chase Field

Arrieta’s line: 6 IP 7 H 6 R 3 ER 2 BB 7 K

A double by Mark Trumbo, the second batter Arrieta faced, got things going. After a walk to Paul Goldschmidt and a groundout that moved the runners into scoring position, Yasmany Tomas singled to score two runs.

The Cubs gave Arrieta the lead in the fifth and he gave it right back. Nick Ahmed, leading off the bottom of the sixth, singled. A.J. Pollock reached on an error. A strikeout gave Arrieta two outs, but he walked Goldschmidt again to load the bases. In the Diamondbacks’ lineup, pitching around Goldschmidt, who will finish in the top five in MVP voting, makes sense with two outs. But then David Peralta doubled to clear the bases, with the help of an error.

His swinging strike percentage was 9.8 percent, which dovetailed with his first two ”poor“ starts, when it was 9.4 and 7.8 percent. Those all rank in the lower half of his starts, by swinging strike percentage.

May 29, vs. Royals, Wrigley Field

Arrieta’s line: 7 IP 8 H 4 R 4 ER 0 BB 5 K

Alcides Escobar led off with a home run, and that would be the theme of the day: Arrieta allowed three. Alex Gordon homered in the second and Salvador Perez in the fourth. Eric Hosmer hit an RBI double in the sixth.

After not throwing a changeup for two starts, Arrieta peppered it in during this game. 

June 16, vs. Indians, Wrigley Field

Arrieta’s line: 5 IP 3 H 4 R 4 ER 6 BB 6 K

The six walks say it all, as does the resulting 112 pitches, 66 strikes, in five innings. Without watching the game it’s tough to know if he had poor command, was dealing with a small or inconsistent strike zone, or a combination of both. The Pirates can’t bank on six walks, especially when he walked zero or one batters in 19 of his starts and had a 113/23 K/BB ratio in 1071/3 innings after the All-Star break.

It’s worth pointing out his .205 BABIP after the All-Star break, not to diminish his record-setting second half but to add context, perhaps, to how it was so exceptional. He also stranded 88.2 percent of runners on base. 

The takeaways from the games where he seemed human: Hope his defense makes mistakes, hit homers, hope that for whatever reason (strike zone, command) he’s walking guys, get the leadoff man on base and hope he doesn’t throw his cutter very often. Not exactly a sound formula.

On one hand, getting his pitch count to more than 100 might help, as with any pitcher. He has a .246/.302/.298/.600 line after the 100th pitch of the game. But he allowed more than one run in seven of the 23 starts in which he threw 100 pitches and the .588 OPS allowed in pitches 1-25 isn’t far off. Four of the five teams above got to Arrieta early. His .617 OPS in the first inning is the highest of any inning. He has an .810 OPS allowed in any count without a strike, so perhaps trying to drive up his pitch count with patience isn’t the best option.

In today’s paper: How the elimination aspect of the wild-card game affects roster construction and in-game decisions.

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