The math says go for 2 all the time

Analytics have had a big influence on Major League Baseball in recent years, with the Pirates among the teams to benefit from advanced statistical analysis. Analytics have a growing influence in the NFL as well, and the new extra point rule could be a barometer of how far the league has come.

According to the math, it makes more sense to go for two points after every touchdown than for the new 32-yard, one-point extra point. Numberfire.com crunched the numbers.

According to their analysis, the one-point extra point from the 32-yard line will have a success rate of 93.58 percent while two-point conversions have had a success rate of roughly 48 percent. Multiply that by two because of the points awarded and it comes out to a 96 percent success rate.

What numberfire.com did not factor in was the fact that defenses can now return blocked kicks, fumbles or interceptions for two points just as the college game allows. NFL coaches will certainly factor that into their decision-making.

Steelers defensive end Cameron Heyward said he would welcome opposing offenses going for two points.

“I want every offense to go for two because I think we have a good goal line defense around here,” Heyward said. “We’re going to have guys swarming to the ball. I really like the addition of giving the defense a chance to score. If it’s a quick slant – you saw what James (Harrison) did in the Super Bowl – if that’s after a touchdown that doesn’t count [under the old rules], but if we can get points like that and then put the offense back on the field we’re all going to be all for it.”

My guess on which coaches could accept the math first: Chip Kelly of Philadelphia and Bill Belichick of New England.

*For those fans who are pinning their hopes on the defensive rookies to come in and make an impact, Heyward reminded them how difficult it has been for first-year players to get on the field with the Steelers. It took Heyward a full season to understand the nuances of this defense – and more than two seasons to earn a starting job – and he expects the rookies this year to have a similar learning curve.

The Steelers selected three defensive players with their first four picks, including first-round outside linebacker Bud Dupree and second- and fourth-round cornerbacks Senquez Golson and Doran Grant.

“The easiest way is to put them in is situationally,” Heyward said. “I think it takes a good half year or full year to digest it and play fast. In college, you can think more on the run. If you’re thinking [in the NFL], you’re not ready. We want our guys at full speed all over the place.

“If you’re thinking and guessing it really puts the defense at risk because we trust that everyone is going to do their job. Everybody wants their guys to play early, but if he’s not ready we don’t want to just throw anyone in there. We’re expecting these guys to learn. If they’re ready to go they’re ready to go. The best man wins.”

Heyward said it will be important for the rookies to exhibit patience.

“You don’t become patient until you go through adversity and establish some patience,” he said. “Your hard work will pay off. It’s not like no one is noticing. The main thing you want to do is establish trust with your teammates and coaches that they want to put you in there.”

*Wednesday was the first opportunity reporters had a chance to interview Steelers veterans since the end of the season. Heyward was asked about the sudden retirement of outside linebacker Jason Worilds.

“I was a little surprised,” he said. “I think everyone was. Worilds was a very quiet guy and kept to himself and you respect his decision.”

*The Steelers did not draft an offensive lineman, but they brought in six undrafted free agents who will take part in OTAs, minicamp and training camp. Center Maurkice Pouncey and right tackle Marcus Gilbert recently took them to dinner at the Capital Grille.

“It’s my time to start looking after the younger guys,” Pouncey said.