Steelers hoping for a 2014 finish, not 2009 or 2012

The Steelers have started 6-4 three other times in Mike Tomlin’s tenure as head coach. They made the playoffs in only one of those years.

The path to follow is the one they followed last season. After starting 6-4 they barely won at Tennessee and then lost to New Orleans before ripping off four consecutive wins to finish 11-5 and win the division.

The Steelers might not have to win five of six to get into the playoffs this year, but they might have to go 4-2 to get to 10-6. Not only do the Steelers have a poor division record (1-2), but they’re 3-4 in conference games, which is the second tiebreaker for the wild card after head-to-head.

The Steelers will be rooting for the Patriots to beat the Bills (5-4) in Monday Night Football so they can retain the No. 5 seed in the AFC. The Bills would leap-frog the Steelers if they beat the Patriots.

The Steelers also were 6-4 in 2012 and 2009. They went 2-4 and finished 8-8. Of course, they played their 11th game that season without Ben Roethlisberger. Charlie Batch started for the Steelers in Cleveland, and the Steelers lost, 20-14. They also lost to the Chargers, Cowboys and Bengals after that. The losses to the Cowboys and Bengals were by three points. If they won one of those games they would have made the playoffs.

In ’09, they were 6-4 and went 3-3 over their final six to finish 9-7. They missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker to Baltimore. The final three losses in ’09 all were by a touchdown or fewer, including two that were decided by three points. 

The Steelers already lost one game they should have won (see Baltimore) and another when they held a fourth quarter lead (see Cincinnati). Another one of those might be the difference between making the playoffs and watching from home. 

The Steelers got some help on Sunday. Their slim hopes of repeating as AFC North champs were improved when Arizona beat Cincinnati. The Bengals hold a two-game lead over the Steelers with six remaining.

How big is that loss to the Bengals at Heinz Field now? If the Steelers could have closed that game out they’d be tied with the Bengals with identical 7-3 records with the head-to-head tiebreaker. 

As it is, they’re two behind and the Bengals hold the head-to-head edge as well as the better division record, the second tiebreaker after head-to-head.

The wild card remains the most likely path to the playoffs for the Steelers, and they got mixed results there on Sunday. The Jets (5-5), Raiders (4-6) and Dolphins (4-6) all lost, but the Texans (5-5), Colts (5-5) and Chiefs (5-5) all won.

Either the Colts or the Texans will win the AFC South, and the Steelers will be hoping the other falls out of contention. The Steelers play host to the Colts Dec. 6. 

How quickly things change in the NFL. Three weeks ago, the Chiefs and Texans were 2-5 and seemingly out of it. Now both are fighting the Steelers for a wild card berth.

The most difficult remaining games for the Texans: at Buffalo and Indianapolis and at home to the Patriots. 

The most difficult remaining games for the Colts: at Pittsburgh and Miami and home games against the Texans and Buccaneers.