Stats Geek: Comparing the NL Playoff Rotations
Gerrit Cole leads the league in wins this season. (Peter Diana/Post-Gazette)
The aces from two of the National League’s best rotations pitched Sunday. Gerrit Cole won his major-league best 14th game for the Pirates and Dodger Zach Greinke saw his consecutive scoreless streak stopped at 45⅔ innings in a well-pitched, hard-luck no-decision.
The Dodgers have the best front two, front three and front four among NL rotations with Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Bolsinger and Brett Anderson. The latter two aren’t aces but they’ve been solid enough with Greinke and Kershaw at the top. We’re stopping at four-man rather than five-man rotations because at playoff time that fifth guy won’t matter much.
What team is second to the Dodgers? The Pirates? The Cardinals? The Nationals? How ’bout those Mets? Those first three teams ought to make the playoffs and Mets also have a shot.
It says here the second-best front two belongs to the Nationals. The Pirates have a strong argument for the best front three, but it’s very close with the others, particularly because baseball is like Wall Street: Past returns don’t guarantee continued success. Going beyond three pitchers, St. Louis has the deepest rotation by far.
Let’s take a look at the stats through Sunday. The two columns on the far right are Fielding Independent Pitching, which is based on outcomes that are in the pitcher’s hands: strikeouts, walks, hit batsmen and home runs; and Adjusted ERA, which adjusts for the ballparks the man has pitched in. (The average pitcher is at 100, and anything above 100 is above average.) All tabulations come from baseball-reference.com, with league leading stats in bold.
Dodgers W-L IP H ER BB SO ERA FIP ERA+
Zach Greinke 9-2 138.1 91 21 24 120 1.37 2.62 268
Clay Kershaw 8-6 140 105 39 27 185 2.51 2.11 146
M. Bolsinger 5-3 84 71 26 28 75 2.79 2.78 132
B. Anderson 3-3 110.2 117 41 30 79 3.33 3.56 110
Pirates W-L IP H ER BB SO ERA FIP ERA+
Gerrit Cole 14-4 132.1 115 33 28 130 2.24 2.70 165
AJ Burnett 8-4 131 135 39 34 110 2.68 2.94 138
F. Liriano 6-6 120.2 82 39 42 136 2.91 2.98 127
C. Morton 6-4 64.2 64 33 20 36 4.59 4.57 81
The Pirates might have the biggest dropoff after their front three, but the Nationals and Mets should have concerns there, too.
Cardinals W-L IP H ER BB SO ERA FIP ERA+
C. Martinez 11-4 119.1 99 31 48 121 2.34 3.41 160
John Lackey 9-5 131.1 130 39 32 94 2.88 3.45 130
Lance Lynn 7-5 109.1 100 34 34 119 2.80 2.68 133
*Jaime Garcia 3-3 48 35 9 7 32 1.69 2.98 222
Mike Wacha 11-4 118.1 103 43 29 99 3.27 3.30 114
*A. Wainwright 4-0 25 23 4 3 18 1.44 1.99 263
*Wainwright has been out since April with a torn left Achilles tendon but says he could pitch in the playoffs. Garcia has been out since late June with a groin strain but is scheduled to pitch tonight. It’s hard to say who their front three or four would be in the playoffs, but it’s easy to say they’ll be good.
Nationals W-L IP H ER BB SO ERA FIP ERA+
Max Scherzer 10-8 143 103 37 16 166 2.33 2.35 159
J. Zimmermann 8-5 122.2 130 45 21 90 3.30 3.16 112
Gio Gonzalez 8-4 105.2 111 45 39 92 3.83 3.16 96
Joe Ross 2-3 32.2 28 11 3 34 3.03 1.84 123
Ross, 22, has done a good job subbing for Stephen Strasburg, who went on the disabled list July 5 with strained left oblique. Both Strasburg (5-5, 5.16 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 61 IP) and Doug Fister (3-6. 4.50 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 74 IP) have disappointed this year.
Mets W-L IP H ER BB SO ERA FIP ERA+
Jacob deGrom 10-6 127.1 89 37 16 166 2.33 2.35 159
Matt Harvey 9-7 125.1 106 44 31 116 3.16 3.69 118
N. Syndergaard 4-5 78.2 70 26 20 82 2.97 2.81 126
Jon Niese 5-9 115.1 124 48 35 74 3.75 4.31 100
Bartolo Colon 9-9 117.1 131 60 14 92 4.60 3.59 81
Five pitchers are listed here because it’s hard to say who the fourth-best Mets pitcher is. Colon, 42, started very well but has faded. He got the team off to a strong start, but it’s been the young front three who have carried the punchless team since.
Notable in their absence from this comparison are the world champion San Francisco Giants. Madison Bumgarner is still their ace (11-5, 3.16 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 131 IP) and Chris Heston (10-5, 3.18, 3.18, 119 IP) has been very good, too. But Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong, Jake Peavy and Tim Lincecum all have ERA and FIP above 4.00.
You still don’t want to face Bumgarner in a wild-card game, though.