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Stats Geek: Comparing the NL Playoff Rotations

By Brian O'Neill 8 years ago


Gerrit Cole leads the league in wins this season. (Peter Diana/Post-Gazette)

The aces from two of the National League’s best rotations pitched Sunday. Gerrit Cole won his major-league best 14th game for the Pirates and Dodger Zach Greinke saw his consecutive scoreless streak stopped at 45⅔ innings in a well-pitched, hard-luck no-decision.

The Dodgers have the best front two, front three and front four among NL rotations with Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Bolsinger and Brett Anderson. The latter two aren’t aces but they’ve been solid enough with Greinke and Kershaw at the top. We’re stopping at four-man rather than five-man rotations because at playoff time that fifth guy won’t matter much.

What team is second to the Dodgers? The Pirates? The Cardinals? The Nationals? How ’bout those Mets? Those first three teams ought to make the playoffs and Mets also have a shot.

It says here the second-best front two belongs to the Nationals. The Pirates have a strong argument for the best front three, but it’s very close with the others, particularly because baseball is like Wall Street: Past returns don’t guarantee continued success. Going beyond three pitchers, St. Louis has the deepest rotation by far. 

Let’s take a look at the stats through Sunday. The two columns on the far right are Fielding Independent Pitching, which is based on outcomes that are in the pitcher’s hands: strikeouts, walks, hit batsmen and home runs; and Adjusted ERA, which adjusts for the ballparks the man has pitched in. (The average pitcher is at 100, and anything above 100 is above average.) All tabulations come from baseball-reference.com, with league leading stats in bold.

Dodgers               W-L     IP       H     ER    BB   SO   ERA     FIP    ERA+ 

Zach Greinke      9-2    138.1    91     21    24   120     1.37      2.62    268

Clay Kershaw     8-6    140      105    39    27    185    2.51      2.11    146

M. Bolsinger       5-3      84        71    26   28      75    2.79      2.78     132

B. Anderson       3-3     110.2  117    41   30      79    3.33      3.56     110

 

Pirates              W-L     IP        H    ER    BB   SO     ERA    FIP       ERA+

Gerrit Cole        14-4    132.1   115   33    28    130    2.24      2.70      165

AJ Burnett           8-4    131     135   39    34     110   2.68      2.94      138  

F. Liriano            6-6    120.2     82  39    42     136    2.91     2.98      127

C. Morton            6-4      64.2     64  33    20       36    4.59    4.57         81

The Pirates might have the biggest dropoff after their front three, but the Nationals and Mets should have concerns there, too.

 

Cardinals           W-L     IP        H    ER    BB   SO     ERA    FIP       ERA+

C. Martinez       11-4     119.1   99    31     48    121    2.34    3.41      160

John Lackey       9-5     131.1  130   39     32      94    2.88    3.45      130

Lance Lynn        7-5     109.1   100   34     34    119    2.80    2.68      133

*Jaime Garcia    3-3       48        35    9       7      32    1.69    2.98      222

Mike Wacha     11-4      118.1   103  43      29     99    3.27    3.30      114

*A. Wainwright   4-0       25        23    4       3      18   1.44     1.99      263

*Wainwright has been out since April with a torn left Achilles tendon but says he could pitch in the playoffs. Garcia has been out since late June with a groin strain but is scheduled to pitch tonight. It’s hard to say who their front three or four would be in the playoffs, but it’s easy to say they’ll be good.

 

Nationals            W-L     IP        H    ER    BB   SO     ERA    FIP       ERA+

Max Scherzer    10-8      143     103    37     16   166     2.33    2.35      159

J. Zimmermann   8-5      122.2  130    45      21    90     3.30    3.16      112

Gio Gonzalez      8-4      105.2  111    45      39    92     3.83     3.16       96

Joe Ross             2-3        32.2     28   11        3    34     3.03     1.84      123

Ross, 22, has done a good job subbing for Stephen Strasburg, who went on the disabled list July 5 with strained left oblique. Both Strasburg (5-5, 5.16 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 61 IP) and Doug Fister (3-6. 4.50 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 74 IP) have disappointed this year.

Mets                   W-L     IP        H    ER    BB   SO     ERA    FIP       ERA+

Jacob deGrom  10-6     127.1   89    37     16   166     2.33    2.35       159

Matt Harvey        9-7     125.1  106   44     31    116     3.16    3.69       118

N. Syndergaard  4-5       78.2   70    26     20     82     2.97    2.81       126

Jon Niese           5-9      115.1  124   48     35     74     3.75    4.31       100

Bartolo Colon     9-9      117.1  131   60     14     92     4.60    3.59         81

Five pitchers are listed here because it’s hard to say who the fourth-best Mets pitcher is. Colon, 42, started very well but has faded. He got the team off to a strong start, but it’s been the young front three who have carried the punchless team since.

Notable in their absence from this comparison are the world champion San Francisco Giants. Madison Bumgarner is still their ace (11-5, 3.16 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 131 IP) and Chris Heston (10-5, 3.18, 3.18, 119 IP) has been very good, too. But Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong, Jake Peavy and Tim Lincecum all have ERA and FIP above 4.00.

You still don’t want to face Bumgarner in a wild-card game, though.